基于投入产出的装备制造业关联效应和波及效应分析

Analysis on the correlation effect and spread effect of equipment manufacturing industry based on input-output

根据国家统计局发布的2002-2018年全国投入产出数据,分析了我国装备制造业的关联效应和波及效应。结果表明:装备制造业属于基础性产业,内部关联性较强,但我国装备制造业目前附加值较低,对外部产业的拉动作用有限;装备制造业对其他产业的拉动作用整体上远大于其他产业对装备制造业的拉动作用,但装备制造业内部细分产业对其他产业的拉动作用存在差异;出口、投资和消费在对装备制造业发展的贡献上存在一定替代关系,其中投资的贡献作用最大,出口次之,消费最小。在“双循环”新发展格局下,我国应注重装备制造业向价值链中高端攀升,促进装备制造业与其他产业协调发展;综合考虑装备制造业内部细分产业对前后向产业的辐射和拉动作用,对内部细分产业进行优化升级;提高装备制造业创新能力,改善投资结构,挖掘国内市场消费潜力,促进装备制造业高质量发展。

Based on the national input-output data released by the National Bureau of Statistics from2002to 2018,this article analyzes the correlation and spread effect of equipment manufacturing industry in China.The results show that the equipment manufacturing industry is fundamental industry with low added value and its internal correlation is strong,but the driving effect on industries other than manufacturing has been limited;on the whole,the driving effect of equipment manufacturing industry on other industries is much greater than that of the latter to the former,but the driving effect of internal subdivided industries on other industries is different;in terms of contribution to the development of equipment manufacturing industry,there is a substitution relationship among investment,export and consumption,in which investment plays the largest role,followed by export and consumption.Under the new“dual circulation”development pattern,our country should emphasize the equipment manufacturing industry upgrading to the middle and high-end of the value chain and promote its coordinated development with other industries;comprehensively consider the radiation and driving effects of the internal subdivided industries on the forward and backward industries,optimize and upgrade internal subdivided industries;enhance the innovation ability of equipment manufacturing industry,improve the investment structure,explore the consumption potential of the domestic market,and promote high-quality development of the industry.