新能源汽车“车电分离”商业模式购销演化博弈研究

Research on the Evolutionary Game of“Separation of Vehicle and Battery”Business Model for New Energy Vehicle Enterprises and Consumers

本文在新能源汽车换电模式背景下,考虑消费者对“车电分离”商业模式的接受度,构建车企和消费者双方参与的购销演化博弈模型,探讨系统的演化稳定策略;利用数值仿真针对重要参数开展敏感性分析。结果表明:车企和消费者的演化结果取决于双方的初始状态;消费者接受度和电池使用效益的增加均有利于推广“车电分离”模式,但电池使用效益的激励作用会随时间而逐渐削弱;特别地,车企对电池的补贴价格和租赁费用应控制在适当区间内,否则会加速双方选择整车购销策略。此外,在消费者对“车电分离”模式接受度变化的同时调整电池租赁费用、补贴价格及电池使用效益,发现双因素叠加效应比单因素对系统演化博弈的影响更大。进而建议车企积极调整营销策略,加快换电网络布局,以促进“车电分离”商业模式的推广。

In the context of the new energy vehicle battery exchange model,the evolutionary game model is constructed with the participation of both vehicle enterprises and consumers,and the evolutionary stabilization strategy of the system is explored by considering the acceptance of the“separation of vehicle and battery”business model by consumers;sensitivity analysis is conducted for important parameters using numerical simulation.The results show that:the evolutionary outcomes of vehicle enterprises and consumers depend on the initial states of both parties;the increase in consumer acceptance and battery usage benefits are both beneficial to the promotion of the“separation of vehicle and battery”model,but the incentive effect of battery usage benefits will gradually weaken over time;in particular,the subsidized price and lease cost of batteries by vehicle enterprises should be controlled within an appropriate In particular,the subsidized price and leasing cost of batteries should be controlled within the appropriate range,otherwise it will accelerate both parties to choose the whole vehicle purchase and sale strategy.In addition,by adjusting the battery leasing cost,subsidy price,and battery use efficiency while consumers'acceptance of the“separation of vehicle and battery”model changes,it is found that the superposition effect of the two factors has a greater impact on the system evolution game than the single factor.In turn,it is suggested that car companies should actively adjust their marketing strategies and accelerate the layout of the battery exchange network to promote the promotion of the“separation of vehicle and battery”business model.