房地产投资增长对城市综合杠杆率的影响测度--基于2003~2020年104个地级及地级以上城市面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Real Estate Investment Growth on Urban Comprehensive Leverage Ratio--Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 104 Prefecture-Level and Above Cities From 2003~2020

房地产投资增长对于城市综合杠杆率的影响是房地产投资增长对城市经济增长和债务增长影响的综合反映,其对我国房地产业调控和宏观杠杆率调控的方向选择有着重要影响。如果房地产投资增长对于城市债务增长的拉动作用大于对经济增长的拉动作用,即推动了城市综合杠杆率的上升,那就应该对房地产投资增长的合理性进行考量。本文基于2003~2020年104个地级及地级以上城市的面板数据,对房地产投资增长对城市综合杠杆率的影响进行了实证分析。结果显示,长期来看房地产投资增长促进了城市综合杠杆率的下降,房地产投资增长对经济增长的拉动作用强于债务增长,但在不同人口规模城市、不同商业魅力城市存在较大差别,在不同时期也存在较大差异。要使城市综合杠杆率保持合理水平,就应当保持房地产市场合理健康发展,合理调节房地产投资增长的空间结构,做到因城施策,努力实现房地产业促进经济增长和债务合理增长相协调的格局。

The impact of real estate investment growth on urban comprehensive leverage ratio is a comprehensive reflection of the impact of real estate investment growth on urban economic growth and debt growth.It has an important influence on the choice of direction for the regulation of China's real estate industry and the macro leverage ratio.If the pulling effect of real estate investment growth on urban debt growth is greater than the pulling effect on economic growth,that is,it pushes up the comprehensive leverage ratio of cities,then the rationality of real estate investment growth should be considered.This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of real estate investment growth on urban comprehensive leverage ratio based on panel data for 104 prefecture-level and above cities from 2003 to 2020.The empirical results show that in the long run real estate investment growth has contributed to a decline in the urban comprehensive leverage ratio.The real estate investment growth has been a stronger driver of economic growth than debt growth.Still,there are significant differences in cities of different population sizes and commercial appeal,and also in different periods.To keep the urban comprehensive leverage ratio at a reasonable level,we should maintain a reasonable and healthy development of the real estate market,reasonably adjust the spatial structure of real estate investment growth,implement city-specific policies,and strive to achieve a pattern in which the real estate industry promotes economic growth and reasonable debt growth in a coordinated manner.