上海市闵行区手足口病ARIMA乘积季节模型预测

Application of R-based multiple seasonal ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Minhang district, Shanghai

目的 探讨自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)在常态下的手足口病疫情预测应用效果,同时了解新型冠状病毒肺炎(corona virus disease 2019,COVID-19)对手足口病发生的影响。方法 应用R软件构建ARIMA乘积季节模型对2009—2018年上海市闵行区手足口病报告发病数进行拟合,选出最优模型,利用最优模型预测2019年手足口病发病数与实际报告发病数进行比较,评估模型预测性能;进而重新拟合模型预测2020年常态下手足口病发病数,与2020年实际报告发病数进行比较,分析COVID-19疫情对手足口病影响。结果 2009—2020年上海市闵行区手足口病累计报告66 198例,4—7月为高峰期,10—12月出现疫情波动,有明显季节性特征。ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)乘积季节模型能够较好地拟合闵行区手足口病月发病数,具有较好的预测性能。COVID-19疫情对手足口病的发生影响较大,2020年手足口病报告发病数与常态下预期发病数相比下降了81.83%。结论 ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)乘积季节模型可用于上海市闵行区手足口病月发病数的短期预测,具有较好的应用价值。COVID-19防控措施对今后手足口病等传染病疫情的常态化防控策略有借鉴意义。

Objective To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) in the prediction and early warning of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD), and to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the occurrence of HFMD. Methods The multiple seasonal ARIMA models were constructed using R software to fit the number of cases with HFMD reported in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2009 to 2018.The optimal model was used to predict the number of HFMD cases in 2019 and to compare with the actual number of reported cases in order to evaluate the prediction performance of the model.Then, the model was re-fitted to predict the number of HFMD cases in 2020, which was compared with the actual reported HFMD cases in the same period to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence of HFMD. Results From 2009 to 2020, a total of 66,198 HFMD cases were reported in Minhang district, Shanghai.The number of cases peaked during April and July, and a small peak was observed from October to December.The selected ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)multiple seasonal model could fit the monthly incidence of HFMD well and had good prediction performance.The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the occurrence of HFMD.The reported cases of HFMD in 2020 decreased by 81.83% compared with the expected cases under normal conditions. Conclusions The ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)multiple seasonal model can be used for short-term prediction of monthly incidence of HFMD in minhang district,Shanghai,with good application value.The prevention and control strategies for COVID-19can be used as a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD and other infectious diseases in the future.