我国政府公共支出水平空间演变及影响因素研究

The spatial evolution and influencing factors of government public expenditure in China

目的以政府公共支出为研究对象,测算分析我国政府公共支出的空间效应。方法莫兰指数测算政府公共支出的空间演变,面板空间模型进行空间效应分析。结果三大支出均具有显著的正向空间依赖性。政府公共支出不仅受本地区人均财政收入、千人口床位数、生师比、老年抚养比等指标影响,相邻地区指标也会产生空间溢出效应。结论固定效应的面板空间杜宾模型更切合实际。地方政府在制定公共支出政策时,需综合考虑本地区和相邻地区的各政策环境,以达到资源要素最优配置。

Objective To measure and analyze the spatial effect of government public expenditure in China.Methods Moran index and panel spatial model were used to measure the spatial evolution and effect respectively.Results Three major types of public expenditure had significant positive spatial dependence.The government public expenditure was affected by the per capita financial income,the number of beds per 1,000 population,the ratio of students to teachers,and the ratio of old-age support.Besides,adjacent area indexes had spatial spillover effect.Conclusions The panel space Durbin model with fixed effect is more realistic.When making public ex-penditure policy,local government should consider the policy environment of the local area and adjacent areas in order to achieve the optimal allocation of resources.