长三角城市群城市韧性与新型城镇化的耦合协调研究

Spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination of urban resilience and new urbanization in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River delta

以2006—2020年长三角城市群26个城市作为研究样本,构建了城市韧性与新型城镇化的评价指标体系,并运用CRITIC法和熵值法综合权重与耦合协调模型测算出两系统间的耦合协调度,最后借助空间马尔可夫链和灰色关联模型对耦合协调度的时空动态演变规律及其内部影响因素进行探讨。结果表明:城市韧性与新型城镇化的耦合协调等级在空间上呈现“Z”型分布,大部分城市处于转型发展阶段。耦合协调等级的转移在地理上并不孤立,不同邻域背景对等级转移的影响不同。耦合协调度的时空差异演变主要是经济发展水平、社会保障制度和应急通信能力等六个因素相互作用的结果。在此基础上提出提升两系统间耦合协调度的策略,以期为制定城市安全发展战略提供理论及政策参考。

This paper took 26 cities in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River delta from 2006 to 2020 as research samples to construct an evaluation index system of urban resilience and new urbanization,and calculated the coupling coordination degree between the two systems based on the comprehensive weight of CRITIC method and entropy method and coupling coordination degree model.Finally,with the help of spatial Markov chain and grey relational model,the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution law and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree were discussed in depth.The results were as follows:The coupling coordination level between urban resilience and new urbanization was spatially distributed in a“Z”shape,with most cities in the transition development stage.The transfer of coupling coordination level was not isolated geographically,and different neighborhood backgrounds had different effects on the transfer of coupling coordination level.The evolution of spatiotemporal differences in the coupling coordination degree between the two systems was mainly the result of the interaction of six influencing factors,including the level of economic development,social security system and emergency communication capability,which could provide theoretical references and policy recommendations for the formulation of safe development strategies.