上海市海岸带区域可持续发展综合评价——基于DPSIR模型的分析

Comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development of coastal zone area in Shanghai based on DPSIR Model

为了实现上海市海岸带区域的可持续发展,结合区域特征,建立了基于DPSIR模型的上海市海岸带区域可持续发展综合评价指标体系,采用层次分析法计算各指标的权重,运用加权平均法计算综合评价值。研究结论显示:上海市海岸带各准则层的权重为响应>驱动力=压力>影响>状态,表明在对上海市海岸带可持续发展的影响上,响应层作用最大,驱动力层和压力层的作用居中,影响层和状态层的作用较小。2006—2019年,上海市海岸带可持续发展水平从2006年的“严重不可持续”演变为2019年的“较不可持续”,呈上升趋势,但幅度较小,且处于基本可持续线以下。这说明研究时段内上海市海岸带状况得到部分改善,城市可持续发展水平相对稳定,但现行相关政策和措施产生的环境收益未能有效抵消当前的环境压力,人类活动对海岸带环境的冲击仍然值得重视。上海市在发展经济的同时要注意海岸带资源和环境的保护,避免以牺牲环境为代价的“数量”发展。

In order to realize the sustainable development of Shanghai coastal zone,combined with regional characteristics,a comprehensive evaluation index system of Shanghai Coastal Zone regional sustainable development based on DPSIR is established.The weight of each index is calculated by analytic hierarchy process,and the comprehensive evaluation value is calculated by weighted average method.Research conclusions:Firstty,the weight of each criterion layer of Shanghai coastal zone is response>driving force=pressure>influence>state,which shows that the response layer has a greater role in the sustainable development of Shanghai coastal zone,the role of driving force layer and pressure layer is in the middle,and the role of influence layer and state layer is small.Secondly from 2006 to 2019,the sustainable development level of Shanghai’s coastal zone increased from“seriously unsustainable”in 2006 to“less unsustainable”in 2019,showing an upward trend,but the range is small and below the basic sustainable line.It shows that the coastal zone of Shanghai has been partially improved during the study period,and the level of urban sustainable development is relatively stable,However,the environmental benefits generated by the current relevant policies and measures can not effectively offset the current environmental pressure,so the impact of human activities on the coastal environment is still worthy of vigilance.While developing economy,Shanghai should pay attention to the protection of coastal resources and environment and avoid“quantitative”development at the cost of environment.