长三角地区大气污染水平时空分布特征及影响因素差异分析

Analysis of Difference in Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Air Pollution Level in Yangtze River Delta

研究采用克里金法分析长三角地区41市大气污染水平的时空分布特征及演变规律,并在此基础上参考环境库兹涅茨曲线建立空间计量模型,探究影响大气污染水平的社会经济因素。结果表明:长三角地区41座城市大气污染水平的季节性和空间性特征明显,夏季空气质量状况最好,冬季大气污染水平较高,且呈现从西北向东南递减的趋势;空间回归结果显示,城乡收入差距的扩大、民用汽车保有量和固定资产投资会使得大气污染趋于严重,而电力化水平的提升、科技进步和政府对环境的财政投入对大气污染水平的改善具有明显的促进作用;人口密度和人均GDP与大气污染水平呈现显著的“N”型和倒“N”型曲线。

The Kriging method is used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and evolution law of air pollution level of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.What is more,on this basis,a spatial econometric model is established with reference to the Environmental Kuznets Curve to explore the social and economic factors affecting the level of air pollution.The results show that the air pollution level of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta has obvious seasonal and spatial characteristics.The air quality is the best in summer,the air pollution level is higher in winter,and shows a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast.In addition,the spatial regression results show that the expansion of urban⁃rural income gap,the ownership of civil cars and fixed asset investment will make the air pollution more serious,and the improvement of electrification level,scientific and technological progress and government finan⁃cial investment in the environment can significantly promote the improvement of air pollution level.Furthermore,there is a significant“N”curve and a significant inverted“N”curve between population density,per capita GDP and air pollution level.