基于系统动力学的煤炭供应链碳减排研究

Study on Carbon Emission Reduction in Coal Supply Chain Based on System Dynamics

在“双碳”目标下,我国清洁能源开发和二氧化碳污染排放治理面临新的挑战,如何降低碳排放引起国家更高程度重视。以煤炭供应链为研究对象,在对其各阶段碳排放影响因素分析的基础上,依据各子系统因果关系构建煤炭供应链碳排放系统动力学模型,分析各变量变动对煤炭供应链各阶段及总碳排放影响,并运用Vensim PLE软件进行仿真。研究结果表明:所选3个变量均对供应链碳排放总量影响显著,且同一时间下新技术开发率、企业间信息共享程度均与供应链碳排放总量呈反向变动,煤炭交易价格与之相反,并结合模拟结果给出一些针对措施。

Under the“dual carbon”target,China's clean energy development and carbon dioxide pollution emission control are facing new challenges,how to reduce carbon emissions has aroused greater attention from the government.Taking the coal supply chain as the research object,and based on the analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions at each stage,this paper constructed the car⁃bon emission system dynamics model of the coal supply chain according to the causal relationship of each subsystem to further analyze the influence of each variable on each stage and total carbon emissions of the coal supply chain,and used the Vensim PLE software for stimulation.The research results show that the three selected variables all have a significant impact on the total carbon emissions of the supply chain;and the development rate of new technology and the degree of information sharing between enterprises change inversely with the total carbon emissions of the supply chain at the same time,while the coal trading price is the opposite;and combined with the simulation results,some targeted measures are given.