巴基斯坦瓜达尔港地区干旱灾害风险评估

Drought risk assessment in Gwadar Port,Pakistan

在全球变暖和极端气候事件频发的背景下,分析干旱特征及其风险不仅对经济社会发展具有重要实际价值,而且可为研究气候变化与人类活动的相互作用关系提供参考。瓜达尔港地区是“一带一路”倡议的重要交通要道。本文遵循灾害风险评估理论,采用趋势分析方法对瓜达尔港地区进行干旱灾害风险分析。结果表明:(1)瓜达尔港地区整体干旱灾害危险性指数为0.5左右,南部地区遭受干旱灾害的可能性比北部低,东部地区遭受干旱灾害的可能性较高;(2)暴露度指数整体在0.5左右,中部沿海地区由于经济发达而较容易受到干旱灾害影响,西北部地区有较高的暴露度指数;(3)脆弱性指数整体偏低,并且大致呈由北向南递减的趋势;(4)瓜达尔港地区为中度干旱风险,其中部沿海地区、东北部以及西部小部分区域有相对较高的干旱风险,只有较少的零星区域有较低的干旱风险水平;(5)该地区帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)变化率全部呈下降趋势,意味着该地区整体干旱趋势有所增加。

In the context of global warming and frequent extreme climate events,drought characteristics and risks are of great significance for the current study of social development and climate change.Gwadar Port is one of the most important nodes in the Belt and Road Initiative.However,few studies evaluate the drought events and risks in this region.Here,we follow the disaster risk assessment theory and adopt the trend analysis method to calculate the drought risk in Gwadar Port.The results show that drought risk index is around 0.5,where the northern area is more likely to suffer drought disaster than the southern area.The central coastal area was exposed to drought disasters,and the northwest area had higher exposure risk.The overall vulnerability index is low and shows a decreasing trend from north to south.In conclusion,the drought risk level of Gwadar Port area belongs to moderate,where the central coastal area and some area in northeastern and western port had relatively high drought risk,and only a few sporadic areas were at low drought risk level.The PDSI in the past 20 years showed a downward trend,suggesting that the drought in Gwadar Port has been intensifying.