乡村转型发展影响因素及其作用效应的空间分异——以陕西省为例

The study on influencing factors of rural transformation development and their spatial differentiation of effects:Take Shaanxi province as an example

以陕西省为例,围绕人口、土地、产业等乡村社会经济发展要素构建乡村转型发展评价指标体系,借助ArcGIS平台分析陕西省乡村转型发展时空格局演化特征;利用逐步回归、地理加权回归模型(GWR模型)对陕西省乡村转型发展影响因素及作用效应的空间分异进行探究,以期为陕西省乡村高质量发展路径设计与政策制订提供参考依据。研究结论如下:(1)2005—2017年间,陕西省乡村转型发展程度呈现持续上升趋势,在空间上整体呈现西安及其周边以及榆林北部能源区发展程度高,其余地区发展程度低的特点,且乡村转型发展经历了低度转型主导到较低、中度转型主导的发展过程。(2)地均固定资产投入、加权路网密度、人均生产总值、规模以上工业企业个数和人均耕地资源量是陕西省乡村转型发展的主要影响因素。(3)影响因素中除人均耕地资源量对乡村转型发展整体呈现负向影响外,其余因素均呈现正向影响,且对不同县域影响程度不同,影响效应的空间分异明显。研究对因地制宜地制定陕西省乡村转型发展的差异化政策措施具有重要的参考意义。

Taking Shaanxi province as the case study area,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of rural transformation development with rural core elements such as population,land and industry to analyze the evolution of spatiotemporal pattern of rural transformation development.Then,the influencing factors and the spatial differentiation of their effects were discerned by Stepwise Regression model and Geographically Weighted Regression model,in order to provide a reference for policy formulation of high-quality development of rural areas in Shaanxi province.Our findings were as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2017,the degree of rural transformation development in Shaanxi showed a continuous upward trend.In the province,Xi’an and its surrounding areas as well as the energy area of northern Yulin city developed fast,and the rural transformation has experienced a process from being led by lower-level transformation to low-level and moderate-level transformation.(2)Fixed asset investment per unit land,weighted road network density,per capita GDP,number of industrial enterprises above designated size and per capita cultivated land resources were the main influencing factors of rural transformation.(3)Except for the per capita cultivated land resources which restricted rural development,other factors had positive effect in promoting rural transformation.Each influencing factor has different degrees of influence on different counties,and the spatial differentiation of influence effect is obvious.This research has important reference significance for Shaanxi province to formulate differentiated policies and measures for rural transformation and development in accordance with local conditions.