中国区域碳市场间的非线性关联性研究

Research on the Nonlinear Correlation among Regional Carbon Markets in China

中国区域碳排放权市场的发展为全国碳排放权市场的建立和完善提供了重要的历史经验,中国区域碳市场间的关联性分析也有助于为全国碳市场的发展提供风险提示。本文利用非线性Granger因果检验和社会网络分析法(SNA)研究中国8个区域碳市场价格间的关联性,结果表明:传统的Granger因果检验低估了市场间价格的关联性;中国区域碳市场间存在不对称的价格联系;深圳碳市场价格在区域碳市场价格体系中起主要的影响作用;湖北碳市场是主要的价格影响输出方;北京碳市场是主要的价格影响接受方;北京碳市场与天津碳市场之间存在双向的价格影响关系。在此基础上,本文对防范区域碳市场间的联动风险和有效发展全国碳排放权市场提出几点建议,仅供参考。

The development of China’s regional carbon emission markets has provided an important historical experience for the establishment and improvement of the national carbon market,and the correlation analysis among China’s regional carbon emission markets also helps to provide risk tips for the development of the national carbon market.This article uses the non-linear Granger causality test and the social network analysis(SNA)to study the correlation between prices in eight regional carbon markets in China.The results show that:the traditional Granger causality test underestimates the correlation between prices in the markets;there is an asymmetric price linkage between regional carbon markets in China;the price of the Shenzhen carbon market plays a major role in the price system of regional carbon markets;Hubei carbon market is the main price influence output side;Beijing carbon market is the main price influence receiver;there is a two-way price influence relationship between Beijing carbon market and Tianjin carbon market.On this basis,this paper puts forward several suggestions to prevent the risk of linkage between regional carbon markets and effectively develop the national carbon emission markets,in order for references only.