“营改增”对企业的税负影响研究——基于上市公司自然实验的证据

Research on the Impact of“Replacing the Business Tax with A Value-added Tax”on Enterprises’Tax Burden——Evidence Based on Natural Experiments of Listed Companies

本文选取2009—2015年中国上市公司数据,采用文本分析法识别出“营改增”企业范围,利用多期双重差分的方法探究“营改增”对企业避税程度的影响。首先,利用双向固定效应模型,在省份层面聚类的基础上发现“营改增”能够降低企业的避税程度;其次,分别利用PSM-DID、主成分分析法解决了选择偏误和多类指标重叠的影响,并对不同类型企业的异质性进行探究;最后,通过检验实际税负的变化发现“营改增”可以通过影响企业税负进而降低企业的避税程度。

In this article,the data of listed companies in China from 2009 to 2015 are selected,and the scope of enterprises with“replacing the business tax with a value-added tax”is identified by text analysis,and the impact of“replacing the business tax with a value-added tax”on the level of tax avoidance is investigated by using the method of difference in difference with multiple periods.Firstly,based on the two-way fixed effects model,it is found that“replacing the business tax with a value-added tax”can reduce the tax avoidance level of enterprises based on the clustering at the provincial level;secondly,we use PSM-DID and principal component analysis(PCA)to eradicate the effects of selection bias and overlapping of multiple indicators and explore the heterogeneity of different types of enterprises.Finally,we found that“replacing the business tax with a value-added tax”can reduce the level of tax avoidance by aff ecting the tax burden of enterprises by investigating the changes in the actual tax burden.