人工智能、人口结构转型与劳动收入份额变化

Artificial Intelligence,Demographic Structure Transition and Changes in Labor Income Share

现有文献对人工智能与劳动收入份额关系的研究主要集中于线性层面的分析,却忽视了这一关系潜在的非线性特征。基于中国2006—2017年的省级面板数据,以人力资本和人口老龄化为门限变量构建面板门限模型,同时加入人工智能的平方项,考察人工智能对劳动收入份额的非线性影响。结果表明:人工智能对劳动收入份额的影响呈先抑后扬的U型特征,现阶段以抑制作用为主;这一影响存在人力资本双重门限特征和人口老龄化单门限特征,即随着人力资本水平的提高,人工智能对劳动收入份额的负向影响减弱,随着人口老龄化程度的加深,这一负向影响增强,且替换被解释变量、改变抽样次数、剔除极端值等进行稳健性检验后结论依然成立。因而应提高人力资本水平,促进人工智能技术的适老化发展,以缓解人工智能带来的劳动收入份额下降问题,加快人工智能的可持续发展,扎实推进共同富裕。

The previous researches focused on the linear relationship between artificial intelligence and la-bor income share,ignoring the potential nonlinear characteristics of this relationship.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2006 to 2017,this paper takes human capital and population ageing as threshold variables to build a panel threshold model,and adds the square term of artificial intelligence to investigate the nonlinear impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share.The results show that the influence of ar-tificial intelligence on labor income share demonstrates U-shaped characteristic of restraining first and then increasing,and the inhibition is the main effect at this stage;the influence of artificial intelligence on labor income share has the characteristics of double threshold of human capital and single threshold of population aging,that is,with the improvement of human capital level,the negative impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share decreases,while with the deepening of population aging,the negative impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share increases,and the conclusion is still valid after the robustness test of re-placing explained variables,changing sampling times and eliminating extreme values.Therefore,it is pro-posed to improve the level of human capital and promote the aging development of artificial intelligence tech-nology,so as to alleviate the decline of labor income share brought by artificial intelligence,accelerate the healthy and sustainable development of artificial intelligence and solidly promote common prosperity.