陕西省2020年245例新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征及其影响因素

Epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of 245 COVID⁃19 cases in Shaanxi Province in 2020

【目的】分析2020年初陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID⁃19)流行特征。【方法】基于陕西省官方发布的数据,对2020年1月23日—2月21日COVID⁃19确诊病例进行流行病学分析,同时分析当地人口迁徙和防控措施等对COVID⁃19流行病学特征的影响。【结果】截至2020年2月21日,陕西省COVID⁃19累计确诊数245例,累积发病率为0.63/10万,输入性病例占47.34%。病例的高发阶段为1月31日—2月5日,病例集中风险最高的地区是西安市,发病率前4位的地区分别为西安、安康、汉中和咸阳,占全省病例的81.20%。在社会因素中,日发病率与14 d前百度迁徙规模指数呈正相关。1月25日,省一级卫生应急响应启动,并于1月31日宣布进一步提升出入检疫。2月20日全省防控实行分区分级管理,2月21日之后再无新增本地病例,截至3月19日连续28 d无新增确诊病例,3月27日本地病例及密切接触者清零。【结论】陕西省COVID⁃19疫情主要集中于关中及陕南地区,各地市均有确诊病例。疫情防控效果显著,累计病例趋于平稳,但仍需坚持对疑似病例及密切接触人员的检疫,常态化防疫是疫情防控的重要途径。

[Objective]To determine the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province.[Methods]Epidemiological analysis was conducted on the confirmed cases of COVID-19(n=245)from January 23rd,2020 through February 21st,2020 based on the official data announced by Shaanxi Province.The effects of local population migration,prevention and control measures on the epidemic were explored.[Results]As of February 21st,2020,a total of 245 COVID-19 cases had been notified in Shaanxi Province,with a cumulative incidence rate of 0.63 per 100000,of which imported cases accounted for 47.34%.The high incidence was observed between January 31st and February 5th.Xi’an had the largest number of COVID-19 cases,followed by Ankang,Hanzhong and Xianyang,totally accounting for 81.20%of the cases in the province.In terms of social factors,daily morbidity was positively correlated with Baidu migration scale index 14 days before.On January 25th,the provincial health emergency response was launched,and on January 31st,it was further upgraded for quarantine.On February 20th,the provincial prevention and control system was implemented by classified areas.There were no emerging local cases after February 21st and no confirmed cases for 28th consecutive days as of March 19th.Local cases and close contacts were cleared to zero on March 27th.[Conclusion]The COVID-19 epidemic in Shaanxi Province is mainly concentrated in Guanzhong area and southern Shaanxi,with a widespread pattern in all cities.The prevention and control measures have effectively contained the epidemic,with a declining incidence.However,quarantine of suspected cases and close contacts remains crucial for routine prevention and control strategy.