新冠疫情冲击下的消费选择:是政府消费还是居民消费--基于面板ARDL模型的实证证据

Consumer choice under the impact of the new crown epidemic:government consumption or household consumption--Empirical evidence based on panel ARDL model

为缓解新冠疫情对经济的冲击,制定适宜的消费刺激政策是关键.基于永久收入消费理论模型,利用中国30个省份的面板数据,构建了面板ARDL模型分析政府消费对居民消费的长期和短期影响关系及程度.研究发现:政府消费对居民消费的影响存在地区差异性,其中西部地区政府消费与居民消费在长期和短期都为互补关系,中部地区政府消费与居民消费有长期互补关系,而东部地区政府消费与居民消费则为长期替代关系.因此,中国各地方政府需结合自身特点,制订财政政策,激发居民消费潜力.

In order to alleviate the impact of the Novel Coronavirus epidemic on economy in 2020,it is the key to formulate appropriate policies for improving consumption.Based on the permanent income consumption theoretical model,panel data from 30 provinces in China are used and a panel ARDL model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between government consumption and household consumption is constructed.It is found that there are regional differences in the relationship between government consumption and household consumption.The long-term and short-term relationship between government consumption and household consumption are both complementary in the western region.However,the long-term relationship is complementary in the central region and substitution in the eastern region.Therefore,local governments in China should formulate fiscal policies based on their regional characteristics to stimulate the potential household consumption.