高通胀时代下全球经济面临的“危”与“机”

"Danger"and"opportunity"of global economy in the era of high inflation

通胀正如同一列加速的列车,带动世界经济驶向未来幽深的隧道,也会因此引发诸多严重后果。新兴市场国家很可能会面临国内资产价格下跌、本币对美元欧元贬值、外币债务压力上升的困境,最终引发货币危机,并形成更大规模的经济冲击。以产品加工业和制造业为主的处于产业链中下游的发展中国家,一边面临原材料成本的增加,另一边因为国际竞争激烈,议价权有限,无法实现产品价格随成本的快速上涨,从而承受订单流失的风险,也就面临价格上涨导致收益的不确定性。

Inflation is the same accelerating train that carries the world economy down a deep tunnel into the future,and it has serious consequences.Emerging market countries are likely to face the dilemma of falling domestic asset prices,currency depreciation against the dollar and euro,and rising foreign currency debt pressure,which will eventually lead to a currency crisis and a larger economic shock.The developing countries in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain,who have given priority to products processing and manufacturing,while facing the increased cost of raw materials,on the other side because of the intense international competition and limited bargaining power,are unable to realize rapid rise along with the cost of product prices and thus,bear the risk of loss of orders,also face rising prices and lead to earnings uncertainty.The fundamental solution is that we need to maintain steady and relatively fast economic growth and strengthen the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy with sound development fundamentals,and we should strengthen diversified energy import policies and seek more energy import partners,reduce the dependence of China's economic growth and industrial development on imported bulk commodities.