基于时序预测的企业原材料订购转运优化方法

Optimization Method of Enterprise Raw Material Ordering and Transshipment Based on Time Series Prediction

基于2021年全国大学生数学建模竞赛C题以及所给数据,选择竞赛题目中的问题二进行讨论,以最少数量的原材料供应商保障企业的正常生产,并依据此制定企业损耗最小的转运方案;运用时序预测的方法预测供应商未来24周的供货量,建立了使采购成本最低的0-1规划模型,并通过遗传算法找到最优解,满足企业的生产需求。

The cost and profit of an enterprise oriented to the profit of raw material processing and production in a certain period have an important relationship with the purchase plan of raw materials,the transfer plan,the choice of suppliers and the choice of forwarders.Therefore,formulating reasonable raw material ordering and transshipment plans plays an important role in improving the production efficiency of enterprises.Based on the 2021 Contemporary Undergraduate Mathematical Contest in Modeling C question and the given data,this paper selects question 2 of the competition topic for discussion,guarantees the normal production of the enterprise with the minimum number of raw material suppliers,and formulates the transfer plan with the least loss for the enterprise based on this.Using the method of time series forecasting to predict the supplier's supply in the next 24 weeks,establish a 0-1 planning model to minimize the procurement cost,and find the optimal solution through the genetic algorithm to meet the production needs of the enterprise.