国际资本流动“突然停止”、企业研发投入与全要素生产率

Research on“Sudden Stop”of International Capital Flows,R&D Investment and Total Factor Productivity

在构建了一个包含消费者、生产者和银行在内的三部门模型基础上,本文从理论上分析了国际资本流动“突然停止”冲击对企业全要素生产率的影响及机制,利用1991—2020年中国上市公司数据进行验证。研究发现,国际资本流动“突然停止”发生会显著降低企业全要素生产率,企业研发投入发挥着中介作用且被融资约束所调节,即国际资本流动“突然停止”对企业全要素生产率的负向影响中有49.3%通过抑制企业研发投入来实现,这其中受到融资约束调节的中介作用高达84.7%。基于研究结果本文认为,有效监管、预警和对冲“突然停止”冲击,完善政府补贴机制,缓解企业融资约束以促进企业创新,激励企业积极进行关键核心技术的研发对实现“新常态”下我国企业全要素生产率稳健提升和实现经济高质量发展具有重要意义。

This paper constructs a three-sector model including consumer,producer and banking sector,theoretically analyzing the impact and mechanism of the“sudden stop”shock of international capital flow on firms’total factor productivity.Based on the data of China’s listed companies from 1991 to 2020,the mediation effect analysis framework is used for empirical verification.It is found that the occurrence of“sudden stop”will significantly reduce the total factor productivity of enterprises.In this process,R&D input plays a mediating role which is moderated by financing constraints.That is,with the increase of financing constraints,R&D input plays a greater mediating role.On average,49.3%of the negative impact of“sudden stop”on total factor productivity is realized by inhibiting R&D investment,and 84.7%of the negative impact is mediated by financing constraints.Based on the above findings,this paper argues that effectively monitoring and hedging“sudden stop”impact,optimizing government subsidy policy and easing the financing constraints will promote enterprise to actively develop the core technology,which may benefit enterprises’total factor productivity and high-quality economic growth under“new normal”.