资本账户开放对外汇储备的非线性效应——基于金融发展视角

The Nonlinear Effect of Capital Account Liberalization on Foreign Exchange Reserves——From the Perspective of Financial Development

本文采用PSTR模型研究了不同金融发展水平下资本账户开放对外汇储备的非线性效应,以及这一影响在不同子账户、不同本币国际化程度的经济体和不同地区中的异质性。结果表明:第一,随着金融发展水平的提高,资本账户开放对外汇储备的影响由促进转向抑制。第二,直接投资开放始终促进外汇储备积累,但随着金融发展水平上升,这一促进效应逐渐减弱,证券投资和其他投资开放度提高会随着金融发展水平的不断上升使外汇储备呈现先上升后下降的趋势。第三,随着金融发展水平的上升,国际货币发行主体资本账户开放程度的提高会使外汇储备表现为先下降,后上升,再下降的三阶段特征。非国际货币发行主体和亚洲地区经济体资本账户开放对外汇储备的促进作用会降低,而其他地区经济体该作用表现为由促进转向抑制。因此,为优化外汇储备规模管理,中国应有效统筹资本账户开放、国内金融改革和人民币国际化进程,保障三者相协调、相匹配,同时审慎有序放松对不同类型资本跨境流动的管制。

Since the 1980s,with the advancement of capital account liberalization,frequent outbreak of financial crises and surging foreign exchange reserves(FX reserves),the impact of capital account liberalization on FX reserves has evoked widespread discussions in academia,but no consensus has been reached.Furthermore,only limited literature has nonlinear relationship between these two variables.Employing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model,this paper selects annual panel data of 58 economies from1994 to 2017 and examines the nonlinear effect of capital account liberalization on FX reserves through the lens of financial development as well as analyzing the heterogeneity in different sub-accounts,different economies in currency internationalization level and different regions.The results demonstrates that,firstly,the impact of capital account liberalization on FX reserves has shifted from promotion to suppression with financial development deepening.Secondly,the liberalization of foreign direct investment has always promoted FX reserves hoarding,but this promotion effect gradually dampens as financial system develops.The liberalization of portfolio investment and other investment could engender an effect,positive initially and negative eventually,on FX reserves with financial development augmenting.Thirdly,as financial development heightens,capital account liberalization of international currency issuers would cause FX reserves to manifest a three-stage feature of descent-ascent-descent,yet the promotion effect of capital account liberalization on FX reserves in non-international currency issuers and Asian economies would decline,and it might be manifested as a shift from promotion to suppression in other regions.To optimize the scale of China’s FX reserves,policymakers ought to coordinate the liberalization of capital account,domestic financial reform and renminbi’s internalization to ensure that they complement each other.Meanwhile,it is indispensable to prudently and orderly relax the control of cross-border flows of different types,and actively expand the diversified use of FX reserves.