城市荣誉评选与城投债规模扩张——基于全国文明城市的准自然实验

City Honor Award and Municipal Investment Bonds Expansion——Quasi-Natural Experiments Based on National Civilized Cities

基于全国文明城市评选的准自然实验,匹配2006—2018年的地级市城投债数据,采用多期倍差法,研究了城市荣誉评选与城投债之间的关系。研究发现:全国文明城市评选对城投债规模扩张具有显著的正向影响,全国文明城市入选后,城投债发行额和余额均有显著增长;城市荣誉所带来的财政收入效应和土地金融效应能够提高融资平台公司的融资能力,而文明城市建设的基础设施投资支出和公共服务支出会增加融资平台公司的融资需求;全国文明城市评选对城投债用途的影响程度从大到小依次是偿还有息债务、基建投资、补充营运资金、棚户区改造和保障房建设;经济发展相对落后和财政透明度较低的城市参加全国文明城市评选对其城投债扩张的影响更大。

Based on the quasi-natural experiment of national civilized city award and the data of the municipal investment bonds in prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2018, this paper investigated the influence of civilized city award on municipal investment bonds by using the difference-in-difference(DID) method. The results showed that civilized city award had a significantly positive expansion effect on the scale of municipal investment bonds. For one thing, the fiscal revenue effect and the land finance effect brought by civilized city award improved the financing ability of platform companies, and then promoted the expansion of municipal investment bonds. And for another, because of the expenses of infrastructure investment and public services, this award also increased the financing needs of platform companies, and then led to the expansion of municipal investment bonds. Heterogeneity analysis showed that, civilized city award had a greater impact on two types of using paths of municipal investment bonds, repaying interest-bearing debts and investing infrastructure. Meanwhile, it also played a greater role in underdeveloped cities and the cities with lower financial transparency.