全球贸易网络对价值链分工的影响——基于木质林产品的视角

The Impact of Global Trade Networks on the Division of Labor in Value Chains——Based on Wood Forest Products Perspective

经济全球化背景下,各国之间的木质林产品贸易关系错综复杂,探讨一国木质林产品生产的全球价值链分工地位必须将其置于与其他国家的贸易关系网络中。文章首先利用社会网络分析方法从网络整体层次与网络个体层次分析全球木质林产品贸易网络总体特征与单个国家的特征,进而将贸易网络结构特征与全球价值链分工结合起来进行实证分析。文章基于全球40个国家2002-2020年的木质林产品贸易数据,探讨一国的木质林产品贸易网络特征对木材产业全球价值链分工地位的影响。结果显示,网络联系强度和网络异质性的系数分别是0.036和0.005,而网络中心性的系数是-0.363,这表明一国贸易网络联系强度每上升1个单位,该国在贸易网络中所占据的份额加大,全球价值链分工地位随之提升0.036个单位;一国贸易网络异质性每上升1个单位,其地理分布集中度就下降1个单位,降低了该国对外贸易依赖风险,全球价值链分工地位也随之提升0.005个单位;而一国的网络中心性每上升1个单位,表明与该国发生贸易关系的国家数量增多,但是盲目地扩张贸易对象的数量并不能提升该国的全球价值链分工地位。提出三点政策启示:第一,加快木材产业“走出去”和“引进来”步伐,与更多高水平国家建立贸易联系;第二,不断开拓国际多元化市场,稳定木材产业全球供应链;第三,加强平等互利的贸易联系,构建以我国为主的区域价值链。

In the context of economic globalization, the trade relations of wood forest products among countries are complex and complicated. To explore the global value chain division of labor of wood forest products production in a country, it is necessary to place it in the network of trade relations with other countries. The article first uses social network analysis to analyze the overall characteristics of the global wood forest products trade network and the characteristics of individual countries from the overall network level and the individual network level, and then combines the structural characteristics of the trade network with the division of labor in the global value chain for empirical analysis. The article explores the impact of a country’s wood forest products trade network characteristics on the global value chain division of labor position of the wood industry based on wood forest products trade data of 40 countries worldwide from 2002to 2020. The results show that the coefficients of network linkage strength and network heterogeneity are 0.036 and 0.005 respectively,while the coefficient of network centrality is-0.363, which indicates that for every 1 unit increase in the strength of a country’s trade network linkage, the country’s share in the trade network increases and the global value chain division of labor status increases by 0.036units;for every 1 unit increase in the heterogeneity of a country’s trade network, the concentration of its geographical distribution decreases by 1 unit, reducing the country’s risk of foreign trade dependence and increasing its GVC division of labor status by 0.005 unit;while every1 unit increase in the centrality of a country’s network indicates that the number of countries with which the country has trade relations increases, but blindly expanding the number of trade partners does not improve the country’s GVC division of labor status. Therefore,this paper proposes three policy implications: First, to accelerate the pace of "going out" and "coming in" of the timber industry, and establish trade ties with more high-level countries. Second, to continuously develop international diversified markets to stabilize the global supply chain of the timber industry. Third, to strengthen trade ties of equality and mutual benefit, and build a regional value chain with China as the main player.