浙江省中长期电力供需预测及对策分析

Medium-and Long-Term Power Supply and Demand Forecast and Countermeasure in Zhejiang Province

本文围绕浙江省"十四五"规划和中长期发展规划发展目标,采用主成分分析法和线性回归法,预测浙江省2022年至2030年的用电需求,结合浙江省能源生产现状和能源发展规划预测中长期电力供应.结果表明,按能源发展规划2025年浙江省面临电量缺口266亿千瓦时;2030年面临电量缺口457亿千瓦时.通过努力扩大投资和争取外来电,2030年将面临电量缺口123亿千瓦时.根据分析结果,提出统筹谋划、加快转型、争取外电、加快风电和核电等对策建议.

Focusing on the development goals ofthe 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)and the medium-and longterm development plan of Zhejiang Province,the principal component analysis method and linear regression method are used to predict the total power consumption of Zhejiang Province from 2022 to 2030.The results show that according to the current progress of energy infrastructure construction,Zhejiang Province will face a power shortage of 26.6 billion kWh in 2025 and 45.7 billion kWh in 2030.Under circumstances of trying its best to expand power generation and get more power from other provinces,there will still be a gap of 12.3 billion kWh in 2030.According to the forecast results countermeasures including taking a holistic approach,accelerating transformation,striving for power from other provinces,and accelerating the construction of wind power and nuclear power projects are proposed.