产出回滞、财政效力与福利成本

Hysteresis,the Output Effect and Welfare Costs of Fiscal Policy

传统经济理论假设经济下行冲击只有波动效应而不具有水平效应,忽视了回滞现象。回滞会使产出水平下降后难以通过自身调整得以回复,对宏观政策的调控效力具有不可忽视的影响。本文在检验我国存在产出回滞特征的基础上,结合我国财政支出的生产性特征,通过干中学机制,将回滞特征纳入动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了回滞现象下我国的财政政策效力和福利成本。研究结果表明:(1)中国产出存在回滞特征,利用无约束的不可观察模型识别出中国产出回滞特征十分明显;(2)产出回滞对财政乘数的影响极大,与无回滞特征模型的估算结果相比,纳入回滞特征的基准模型估算的累积乘数值和净现值乘数值约为前者的5倍;(3)产出回滞对福利成本具有重要影响,基准模型中的补偿系数估算值为0.478,约为无回滞模型估算结果的1.7倍。

The hysteresis hypothesis is that recession has a permanent effect on the level of output.Based on the empirical fact of hysteresis and the characteristic of the productive government spending in China,we assume a learning-by-doing mechanism and analyze the implications of hysteresis for fiscal policy in a DSGE model.We found that:(1) There exists hysteresis in China.(2) The hysteresis has a large effect on fiscal policy,and the cumulative multiplier estimated in the presence of hysteresis is about 5 times that in the model without hysteresis,so it is with net present value multiplier.(3) The estimated value of compensation factor of economic fluctuation in the presence of hysteresis is 0.478,which is about 1.7 times that in the model without hysteresis.