新型城镇化与生态文明建设协调发展的时空演化预测及驱动机制研究

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of the Coordinated Development of New Urbanization and Ecological Civilization Construction

基于耦合协调模型与马尔科夫链对民族地区城市新型城镇化与生态文明建设协调发展进行机理阐明与测算,同时进行动态演进预测和驱动机制研究。结果表明:(1)民族地区新型城镇化水平稳中有进而生态文明建设水平波动下降,这决定了二者协调度的波动增长;其中北部地区缓慢下降,南部地区呈现增长态势,省会城市远高于非省会城市。(2)大部分城市实现了协调发展,但仍有1/4的城市未达到初步协调,形成了高度协调城市带动周边城市协调发展的空间格局,协调状态以大概率保持原状态以及向相邻状态转移为主。(3)驱动因素存在结构性变化门槛,当人口城镇化率高于56.29%,技术投入和工业化驱动效果明显;低于56.29%时,土地规划和经济集聚具有显著驱动效应。

Based on the coupled coordination model and Markov chain,the mechanism of coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological civilization construction in ethnic area cities is elucidated and measured,and the dynamic evolution prediction and driving mechanism are also studied.The results show that:(1)The level of new urbanization in ethnic areas has steadily progressed while the level of ecological civilization construction has fluctuated and declined,which determines the fluctuating growth of coordination between the two;among them,the northern region slowly declines while the southern region shows growth,and the provincial capital cities are much higher than the non-capital cities.(2)Most cities have achieved coordinated development,but still 1/4 of them have not reached initial coordination,forming a spatial pattern of highly coordinated cities leading to coordinated development of neighboring cities,and the coordination status is dominated by the probability of maintaining the original status as well as shifting to the neighboring status.(3)There is a threshold of structural change in the drivers.When the population urbanization rate is higher than 56.29%,technology input and industrialization drive the effect significantly;when it is lower than 56.29%,land planning and economic agglomeration have significant driving effects.