2011—2018年沈阳市城区恶性肿瘤发病及生存趋势分析

Incidence and Survival Trend of Malignant Tumors in Shenyang Urban Area from 2011 to 2018

目的 对2011—2018年沈阳市城区居民恶性肿瘤发病及生存趋势进行分析。方法 利用沈阳市肿瘤随访登记系统中2011—2018年城区居民恶性肿瘤发病和随访数据,计算粗发病率、标化率、累积发病率(0~74岁)、截缩发病率(35~64岁)和生存率及发病、生存顺位等指标;寿命表法计算观察生存率;EdererⅡ法计算期望生存率和相对生存率;Joinpoint 3.5.3软件计算发病率和生存率年度变化百分比(APC%);SPSS23.0统计软件对恶性肿瘤男女发病率及生存率进行χ~2检验。结果 2011—2018年沈阳市城区居民恶性肿瘤粗发病率为364.70/10万,中标率190.00/10万,世标率185.63/10万,累积率(0~74岁)21.17%,截缩率(35~64岁)为311.66/10万;男性恶性肿瘤发病前5位是肺癌、结直肠癌、肝癌、胃癌、膀胱癌;女性是乳腺癌、肺癌、结直肠癌、宫颈癌、甲状腺癌;8年间恶性肿瘤发病率呈上升趋势(P=0.00,P=0.67),男性恶性肿瘤发病率高于女性(χ~2=201.63,P<0.05)。2011—2015年恶性肿瘤5年生存率为40.49%,相对生存率为47.84%;男性生存率前5位依次为甲状腺癌、肾癌、膀胱癌、结直肠癌、前列腺癌;女性为甲状腺癌、乳腺癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、结直肠癌;5年间观察生存率呈上升趋势(APC%=7.41,P=0.04),女性生存率高于男性(χ~2=187.62,P<0.05)。结论 2011—2018年沈阳市城区居民恶性肿瘤发病率和生存率呈逐年上升趋势;男性发病率高于女性,生存率低于女性;肿瘤发病率和生存率顺位差异较大。

Objective To analyze the incidence and survival trend of malignant tumors in urban residents of Shenyang from 2011 to 2018.Methods The Shenyang tumor registration report system was used to collect the onset data and survival data of patients with malignant tumor from 2011 to 2018.The crude incidence,age-standardized rate,cumulative rate(0-74 years old),truncated rate(35-64 years old),survival rate,and incidence and survival rank were calculated.The observed survival rate was calculated by the life table method.The expected survival rate and relative survival rate were calculated by EdererⅡmethod.Using Joinpoint 3.5.3 software,the annual percentage change in incidence rate and survival rate(APC%)were calculated.SPSS23.0 software was used for the chi square tests of males and females.Results The crude incidence of malignant tumors in Shenyang,age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and world standard population were 364.70/10 million,190.00/10 million and 185.63/10 million,respectively.The cumulative rate(0-74 years old)was 21.17%,and the truncated rate(35-64 years old)was 311.66/10 million in the years 2011-2018.The top five incidence rates of males are lung,colorectal,liver,stomach,and bladder cancer,whereas those of females were breast,lung,colorectal,uterine,and thyroid cancer.The incidence rate of malignant tumors increased in 8 years(P=0.00,P=0.67),and the incidence rate was higher in males than that in females(χ2=201.63,P<0.05).The 5-year survival rate of malignant tumors was 40.49%,and the relative survival rate was 47.84%from 2011 to 2015.The five survival rates of males were in the order of thyroid,kidney,bladder,colon-rectum,and prostate cancer.The five survival rates of females were in the order of thyroid,breast,uterus,cervix,and colon-rectum cancer.The 5-year survival rate showed an upward trend(APC%=7.41,P=0.04).The survival rate of females was higher than that of males(χ2=187.62,P<0.05).Conclusion The incidence rate and survival rate of malignant tumor in Shenyang urban residents increase yearly from 2011 to 2018.The incidence rate of males is higher than that of females,and the survival rate of males is lower than that of females.The incidence rate and survival rate of tumors differ much in sequence.