基于全球价值链视角的出口就业效应实证分析

Empirical analysis of export employment effect from the perspective of global value chain

随着全球化分工体系逐渐深化,参与全球价值链为各国提供了广泛的就业机会,但对不同发展程度国家的影响存在差异性。为此,构建中介效应模型,以2005—2016年世界银行、TiVA数据库62个国家的数据为样本,实证分析了全球价值链对就业的影响机制。同时将不同国家按照世界银行的收入标准进行分组,探究了不同发展程度国家受影响的程度、方向及路径。得出结论:全球价值链对各国就业存在显著正向影响,通过出口效应间接影响就业,并起到“部分中介作用”;分组实证结果表明,总效应为正,分组国家在出口路径受影响方向与整体检验一致,但中低等收入国家受影响程度远高于中高等和高等国家。

With the gradual deepening of the global division of labor system,participation in global value chains provides a wide range of employment opportunities for countries,however,there are differences in the impact on countries with different levels of development.Based on this,this paper constructs an intermediary effect model,and empirically analyzes the impact mechanism of global value chain on employment based on the data of 62 countries in the World Bank and TiVA database from 2005 to 2016.At the same time,it groups different countries according to the income standard of the World Bank,and explores the degree,direction and path of the impact on countries with different levels of development.The conclusions are as follows:first,the global value chain has a significant positive impact on the employment in various countries,indirectly affects the employment through the export effect,and plays a“partial intermediary role”;second,the grouping empirical results show that the total effect is positive,and the affected direction of the grouping countries in the export path is consistent with the overall test,but the affected degree of middle and low-income countries is much higher than that of middle and high-income countries.