基于马尔可夫过程的舰船装备可用度分析

Availability analysis of ship equipment based on Markov process

舰船装备结构复杂、系统庞大、可靠性要求高,开展舰船装备复杂系统的可用度分析,对于科学控制寿命周期费效比、实时开展装备精准维修、科学指导综合保障工程设计具有重要意义。为此,针对传统基于瀑布式设计理念的可用度分析存在的缺陷,以可用度为中心开展了舰船装备指标一体化设计技术研究,并通过引入马尔可夫分析方法建立舰船装备常用的计算模型,提高了RMS参数的综合预计精度。结果表明:该方法能够有效解决舰船装备维修性设计与装备使命任务要求脱节的问题,为可靠性评估、装备采购和维修决策提供一定的技术借鉴。

Due to its bulkily complex structural system,ship equipment requires high reliability.Therefore,the availability analysis for ship equipment is of great significance for scientific control of life cycle cost-benefit ratio,accurate real-time maintenance of equipment and scientific guidance of comprehensive support engineering design.Aiming at the defects of the traditional waterfall design concept of availability,the integrated design technology of ship equipment index with availability as the center was studied.By introducing the Markov analysis method and establishing the commonly used calculation model of ship equipment,the comprehensive prediction accuracy of the reliability maintainability supportability(RMS)was improved.The results show that this method can effectively solve the problem of disconnection between ship equipment maintainability design and equipment mission requirements,and thus it is referable for reliability evaluation,equipment procurement and maintenance decision.