政府推动型返乡创业能否促进农民收入增长?--基于双重差分的经验评估

Can government-driven self-employment business of migrant workers returning home promote the increase of peasants’income?Empirical evaluation based on DID model

基于农民工返乡创业试点这一准自然实验,利用2011—2019年间中国2495个县域面板数据,采用多期双重差分法实证评估政府推动型返乡创业对农民收入的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:相较于非试点县,返乡创业试点县农村居民人均可支配收入平均提升了约3个百分点,且不存在显著的空间溢出效应,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;返乡创业试点的农民增收作用主要体现在中东部地区,并且数字普惠金融发展和土地流转能够强化该增收效果。在作用机制上,返乡创业试点主要通过促进农民创业、带动非农就业和增进农民要素收入三种渠道推动农民收入增长。

Based on the natural experiment of the pilot project of migrant workers returning home for entrepreneurship and by using the panel data of 2495 counties in China from 2011 to 2019,the influence and its mechanism of the government-driven self-employment business of migrant workers returning home on farmers’income have been analyzed empirically by using the multi-period difference-in-differences method.The research found that compared with the non-experimental counties,the farmers’average disposable income in the experimental counties of self-employment business of migrant workers has increased by about 3%averagely,without significant spatial spillover effect.After a series of robust tests,the results still hold.The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the farmers’income-increasing effect of the self-employment business of migrant workers returning home is mainly reflected in the central and eastern regions,and the development of digital financial inclusion and land transfer can strengthen this effect.The mechanism analysis shows that the pilot project of migrant workers’returning home to start business mainly promotes the growth of farmers’income through three channels:promoting farmers’entrepreneurship,driving non-agricultural employment and increasing farmers’factor income.