基于序关系-熵权-独立性权-可拓云的内涝风险评价

Risk assessment of waterlogging disaster based on G1 method-entropy weight-independence weight-extension cloud model

随着全球气候变暖和城市化进程的加快,极端降雨引发的城市内涝灾害频发。为科学地计算内陆平原城市各区域内涝灾害风险等级,以西安市为例,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个维度构建风险评价指标体系;引入序关系分析法、熵权法、独立性权法确定指标综合权重,并利用可拓云模型进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:碑林区风险等级最高,为Ⅲ级,属于较高风险等级;莲湖区和新城区为Ⅱ级,属于较低风险等级;未央区、灞桥区和雁塔区为Ⅰ级,属于低风险等级;计算结果与实际情况较为一致,能较好地反映出西安市内涝灾害风险的实际分布情况。研究成果可为有关部门内涝灾害的风险管理提供参考。

With the global warming and the acceleration of urbanization,urban waterlogging disasters caused by extreme rainfall occur frequently.In order to scientifically calculate the risk level of waterlogging disaster in various regions of inland plain cities,taking Xi′an City as an example,a risk evaluation index system was constructed from four dimensions of disaster-causing factors,disaster-pregnant environment,disaster-bearing body,and disaster prevention and mitigation ability.The G1 method,entropy weight,independence weight were introduced to determine the index weight,and the extension cloud model was used for qualitative and quantitative analysis.The results showed that Beilin District was the highest risk district with levelⅢ,which belonged to a higher risk level;followed by Lianhu District and Xincheng District of levelⅡ,which belonged to a lower risk level;finally Weiyang District,Baqiao District and Yanta District were in levelⅠ,which belonged to a low risk level.The research results can better reflect the actual distribution of waterlogging disaster risk in Xi′an City,and provide scientific basis for the risk management of waterlogging disaster for relevant departments.