消费券政策可以有效刺激消费吗?——对消费券政策精准补贴与自筛选特征的微观机制理论分析

Does Issuing Consumption Vouchers Effectively Stimulate Residents'Consumption?-Theoretical Analysis on the Micro-mechanism of the Precise Subsidy and Self-screening Characteristics of the Consumption Voucher Policy

针对重大突发公共事件所引致的需求端冲击,具有精准补贴与自筛选特征的消费券政策极为有效地阻断了危机传播。本文拓展了微观经济学中经典的两期消费-储蓄模型,发现消费券政策对需求端的消费刺激效果主要取决于消费券的领取规则设置、消费券的使用规则设置以及领取消费券的消费者财富数额.研究结果表明:1)对中等收入的消费者而言,消费券政策可以定向且有效地刺激消费,消费券比同样金额的现金补贴更能拉动指定行业的短期消费,但是消费券对低收入和高收入消费者的消费刺激作用较弱.2)适当提升消费券领取规则的难度可以筛除乘数效应较低的消费者群体,从而提高刺激消费的效率.3)专用消费券相较于通用消费券对指定行业的消费拉动效果更加明显,但专用消费券有可能会对其它行业消费产生挤出效应.因此,政府需合理设置消费券领取和使用规则、兼顾重点扶持行业与其它行业的协调发展,加大对低收入人群的定向扶持与直接补贴这些研究结果为国家相关部门未来制定消费券标准、并进一步开展需求侧精准改革提供了学术参考和理论依据.

The consumption voucher policy characterized by precise subsidy and self-screening has played an extremely effective role in blocking the spread of crisis originated from the demand side.This paper extends the classic two-period optimal consumption-saving models in microeconomics and finds that the stimulant effect of the consumption voucher policy on the demand side mainly depends on how to apply and use these consumption vouchers,as well as the amount of wealth that the consumers possess.The research results indicate that:1) The consumption voucher policy can stimulate the consumption of consumers with the middle-income level in a targeted and effective way.However,the stimulating effect is relatively weak for consumers with low and high-income levels.2) Appropriately raising the difficulty in applying the consumption voucher can help filter out consumers with low multiplier effects,thus improving the efficiency of stimulating consumption.3) The exclusive consumption vouchers are more effective in boosting consumption of designated industries than the general coupons.However,the exclusive consumption vouchers may have unintended crowding-out effects on the consumption of other industries.Therefore,the government should regulate the rules for applying and using the consumption vouchers reasonably,give consideration to the coordinated development of key supported industries and other industries,as well as enhance the targeted support and direct subsidies for residents with the low-income level.This research provides an academic reference and a theoretical foundation for the relevant departments to formulate standards of issuing consumption vouchers in the future,as well as analyze the precise reform of the demand side in the future.