山东省典型河流近60a降水演变规律分析

Precipitation Evolution Law of Typical Rivers in Shandong Province in Recent 60a

基于山东省10条典型河流的13个气象观测站的1956—2016年实测月降水量资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验、 Morlet小波分析和Hurst指数,对山东省典型河流的年、汛期、非汛期及季节降水量变化特征进行分析,并预测未来降水量变化趋势。结果表明:山东省典型河流的气象观测站中除小清河岔河站和徒骇河白鹤观闸站外,其余站点的年降水量均呈下降趋势;年降水主周期一般为20~30 a,并且年降水主周期从空间上呈现从鲁西南地区向鲁东北地区逐渐增加趋势;根据重标极差分析结果,除马颊河堡集闸站外,其余站点的Hurst指数均大于0.5,具有较强持续性,预测未来山东省年降水量将遵循历史趋势,整体呈下降趋势。

Based on monthly precipitation data of 13 meteorological observation stations of 10 typical rivers in Shandong province from 1956 to 2016, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and Hurst index were applied to analyze variation characteristics of annual, flood season, non-flood season, and seasonal precipitation of the typical rivers in Shandong province, and predict future precipitation trend. The results show that among the meteorological observation stations of the typical rivers in Shandong province, the annual precipitation of the stations shows a decreasing trend except for Chahe station in the Xiaoqing River and Baiheguanzha station in the Tuhai River. The main period of annual precipitation is generally 20~30 a, and the main period of annual precipitation shows a gradually increasing trend from southwest Shandong to northeast Shandong. According to the results of rescaled range analysis, Hurst index of the stations is greater than 0.5 expect for Baojizha station in the Maji River, which has strong sustainability. It is predicted that the annual precipitation in Shandong province will show a decreasing trend in the future in accordance with the historical trend.