贸易政策不确定性、采购前置期与企业存货调整

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Procurement Leading Time and Enterprises’Adjustment of Inventory

面对贸易政策不确定性变动产生的巨大冲击,国内企业应如何调整存货策略对提高经济发展质量至关重要。本文构建了贸易政策不确定性影响企业存货调整的理论分析框架,在此基础上借助准自然实验,首次使用双重差分方法评估了中美建立永久正常贸易关系带来的贸易政策不确定性变动对中国制造业企业存货调整的影响。研究发现:贸易政策不确定性下降显著降低了企业非产成品存货水平,该结论在考虑一系列影响因素后仍然成立;机制检验表明,贸易政策不确定性下降引致的企业存货水平降低主要通过缩短采购前置期、降低前置期不确定性等渠道实现;异质性分析发现,贸易政策不确定性下降对民营企业、一般贸易企业、低成本加成率企业以及低全要素生产率企业的去库存效果更突出。本文研究结论为当前中国在深化供给侧结构性改革背景下有序推进去库存、促进企业降本增效提供了政策启示。

Given the huge impact of changes in trade policy uncertainty,it is necessary to examine how domestic enterprises should adjust their inventory strategies.This paper proposes a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprises’adjustment of inventory.Based on the framework,with the help of a quasinatural experiment and using difference-in-differences method in this topic for the first time,the paper assesses the impact of changes in trade policy uncertainty,which is caused by the establishment of permanent normal trade relations between China and the United States,on Chinese manufacturing enterprises’adjustment of inventory.The findings are as follows:decline of trade policy uncertainty significantly reduces enterprises’non-finished product inventory,and this finding remains valid when a variety of influencing factors are considered;the decline of inventory is mainly realized by shortening of procurement leading time and reducing of leading time uncertainty from mechanism test;the destocking effect is more remarkable for private enterprises,general trade enterprises,lowmarkup enterprises and low TFP enterprises.The findings provide policy insights for China’s destocking,reducing the manufacturing cost,and promoting efficiency in deepening supply-side structural reform.