中国系统性金融风险的区域传染效应

Regional Contagion Effect of China’s Systemic Financial Risks

识别和化解区域层面的金融风险是防范系统性金融风险的重要方面。基于网络分析方法和SIRS传染模型考察2011—2020年中国各省系统性金融风险的关联关系、相对差异和传染情况发现,各省区域系统性金融风险表现为明显的网络形态,金融风险的省份关联愈加密切。地理位置较偏远、经济发展较慢、金融监管较宽松的省份是风险溢入的集中区域,地理位置较优越、经济发展较快、金融监管较严格的省份是风险溢出的主要区域。各省在系统性金融风险传染网络中可以聚类成“净溢出”板块、“经纪人”板块、“双向溢出”板块和“净溢入”板块等,各板块在风险传染网络中发挥的作用不同。因此,各省需提前制定预案并加强定向管控和监测,采取区域差别化的风险防控措施,促进区域经济协调改革和发展,以更好地防范化解区域系统性金融风险。

Identification and resolving financial risks at regional level is an important part of the prevention of systemic financial risks.Based on the network analytical method and SIRS infection model,this paper investigates the correlation,relative difference and contagion of China’s regional systemic financial risks from 2011 to 2020.It is found that the regional systemic financial risks among provinces present an obvious network form;the provincial correlation of financial risks is becoming closer.The provinces with remote geographical location,slower economic development and looser financial supervision are the concentrated areas of risk inflow,while the provinces with superior geographical location,rapid economic development and strict financial supervision are the main areas of risk outflow.Each province can be clustered into different plates in the regional systemic financial risk contagion network,such as the“net outflow”plate,the“broker”plate,the“two-way outflow”plate,and the“net inflow”plate,each plays a different role in the risk contagion network.Therefore,each of the provinces need to formulate plans in advance,strengthen the targeted control and monitoring,adopt regionally differentiated risk prevention and control measures,and promote regional economic coordination,reform and development,so as to better prevent and resolve the regional systemic financial risks,.