宁夏碳排放驱动因素与碳达峰研究

Driving factors of carbon emission and carbon peak in Ningxia

基于2000—2020年的能源消费情况,利用扩展STIRPAT模型对宁夏地区碳排放的影响因素进行研究,采用岭回归得出相关系数,建立变量关系模型,再利用情景分析法设置8种发展情景,对宁夏地区未来碳排放的发展趋势进行研究.研究结果表明:宁夏地区碳排放量增长速度较快,由2000年的4146.91万吨上升到2020年的21339.78万吨,年增长率为8.54%,在2017年之后增速有放缓的趋势;碳排放强度由5.12吨/万元下降到2.02吨/万元,年下降率为4.63%.影响因素分析中,人口规模、城镇化率、人均收入、能耗强度、能源结构和政策因素每变化1%,碳排放量分别变化0.9857%、0.5242%、0.1058%+0.0057%lnL+0.0004%(lnL)^(2)、-0.1312%、-0.2921%和0.0658%.由情景分析可知,宁夏地区的达峰时间为2032—2040年,且碳达峰峰值区间为26466.70~28624.09万吨.结合宁夏地区的发展形势提出优化能源结构,发展绿色低碳产业、大力推动传统产业转型升级、加快调整经济结构的建议.

Based on the energy consumption from 2000 to 2020,the influencing factors of carbon emission in Ningxia are studied by using the extended STIRPAT model,the correlation coefficient is obtained by ridge regression,and the variable relationship model is established;The scenario analysis method is used to set up eight development scenarios to study the development trend of carbon emission in Ningxia in the future.The results show that the growth rate of carbon emissions in Ningxia is fast,rising from 41.4691 million tons in 2000 to 213.3978 million tons in 2020,with an annual growth rate of 8.54%,and the growth rate tends to slow down after 2017;The carbon emission intensity decreased from 5.12 tons/10000 yuan to 2.02 tons/10000 yuan,with an annual decline rate of 4.63%.In the analysis of influencing factors,for every 1%change in population size,urbanization rate,per capita income,energy consumption intensity,energy structure and policy factors,carbon emissions change by 0.9857%,0.5242%,0.1058%+0.0057%lnL+0.0004%(lnL)^(2),-0.1312%,-0.2921%and 0.0658%respectively.According to the scenario analysis,the peak time in Ningxia is 2032-2040,and the peak range of carbon is 264.67-286.24million tons.Combined with the development form of Ningxia,this paper puts forward some suggestions on optimizing the energy structure,developing green and low-carbon industries,vigorously promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and accelerating the adjustment of economic structure.