俄乌冲突、全球政治经济转型及其对中国的影响

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Global Political, Economic Transformation and Their Implications for China

自2022年2月俄罗斯在顿巴斯地区发起特别军事行动以来,俄乌冲突日益成为影响全球政治经济格局走向的重大事件,是百年未有之大变局的现实而有情境感的体现。俄乌冲突是世界经济长周期危机激化的结果,是全球转型中地区进程碰撞的结果,对全球政治经济发展有牵一发而动全身的影响。国际力量对比之变、国际体系与秩序之变、国家发展范式与价值之变的复杂性前所未有。俄乌冲突实际上是一场大国较量,即美国为了维护霸权地位,利用乌克兰,针对俄罗斯、欧洲甚至“盟友”发动的一场混战,目的是重创俄罗斯,牵制欧洲,绑架“盟友”,威胁中国。这场冲突引起的再意识形态化、再军事化、再集团化正在使全球化的发展步履维艰,重创全球治理机制。战争不应是解决问题的途径,制裁更不是终止战争的优选。中国愿意在维护世界和平、安全与促进发展的方向上发挥更大的作用。就内部发展而言,中国要积极提升自主创新能力,提高制度性开放水平,进而赢得经济持续发展所需要的稳定的外部环境。从国际传播、对外沟通、对外关系的角度来看,中国应积极推动构建中文舆论阵地,发展新时代中国与世界的良好互动关系。

Since Russia began the special military operation in the Donbas region in February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increasingly become a major event affecting the global political and economic landscape. It is a realistic and situational embodiment of great changes unseen in a century. The conflict is also the result of intensification of the long-term crisis in the world economy and the collision of regional processes during global transformation. It has an impact of extreme importance on global political and economic development. Complexity of changes are unprecedented either in international balance of power or in international system and order or in national development paradigms and values. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is actually a contest between great powers, that is, in order to maintain its hegemonic position,the United States supports Ukraine to wage a hybrid warfare against Russia,Europe and even its “allies”. The purpose is to hit Russia, contain Europe, kidnap “allies” and threaten China. The re-ideologicalization, re-militarization, and re-groupization caused by this conflict are making globalization difficult,severely damaging global governance mechanism. Wars should not be the way to solve problems, nor should sanctions be the first choice to end wars. China is willing to play a bigger role in maintaining world peace, security and promoting development. Domestically, China should actively enhance its independent innovation capabilities and improve the level of institutional openness, so as to win a stable external environment for sustainable economic development. From the perspective of international communication, external communication, and construction of foreign relations, China should actively promote the construction of Chinese-language global media and develop good interaction with the world in the new era.