普职教育结构调整:基于技能需求结构的分析

The Adjustment of General/Vocational Education Composition: Based on the Analysis of Skill Demand

准确预测劳动力市场的技能需求结构是确定职业教育规模及其与普通教育比例问题的前提。综合使用微观调查数据与政府统计数据,分析发现我国城镇劳动力市场越来越需要高技能水平和通用性技能的劳动力,与此同时,越来越多职业教育毕业生步入低技能水平的行业或者职业。根据劳动力市场对技能需求结构的变化调整普职结构势在必行,为此需系统把握技能供需结构。在需求侧,需对技能更精细地界定与分类,加强技能需求结构调查、预测与信息共享,并提高信息的可读性和可及性;在供给侧,应加强对职业教育技能供给类型的研究,并依据劳动力市场技能需求变化调整人才培养方案。

Accurate prediction of the skill demand structure of the labor market is a prerequisite for determining the scale of vocational education and its ratio to general education. Using micro-level survey data and government statistics, this study shows that the labor market in China’s urban areas is increasingly in need of labor with high-level and general skills, while more and more vocational education graduates are entering industries or occupations with low-level skills. It is imperative to adjust the general/vocational education structure according to the changes in the labor market’s skill demand structure. Therefore, we need to grasp the skill supply and demand structure systematically. On the demand side, it is necessary to define and classify skills in a more detailed way, strengthen the survey, forecast and share information on skill demand structure, and improve the readability and accessibility of information. On the supply side, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the types of skill supply in vocational education and adjust training programs according to the changes in skill demand in the labor market.