新冠疫情冲击下埃及经济改革探析

An Analysis of Egypts’s Economic Reform Under the Impact of COVID-19

塞西执政后,埃及推行了旨在稳定经济和发展军队经济的“双主线”经济改革,并取得了一定成就,包括国际收支平衡改善、财政赤字收窄,军政关系和执政根基更为牢固等。然而,军队经济的扩张抑制了私营部门的活力,导致经济增速偏低。在新冠疫情的冲击下,埃及经济改革的前期成果遭到削弱,既往的改革路径举步维艰,转向势在必行。“双线并轨”成为未来埃及经济改革的大方向,即强化“军队经济”主线对经济稳定主线的支持力度,以加强两者的兼容性,使之共同推动经济回稳向好。这种转向的根本途径是激发私营部门活力。考虑到潜在的政治风险,塞西政府在短期内不会限制军队经济发展,而是通过改善营商环境、促进劳动力和企业能力建设等措施激发私营部门的活力,以实现有限的“双线并轨”。

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi launched "double-mainstream" economic reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy and developing the military economy after he came to power.The reforms have achieved positive results such as improving the balance of international payments,narrowing the fiscal deficit,consolidating the statearmy relationship and the foundation of governance.However,the expansion of the military economy suppressed the vitality of the private sector and resulted in low economic growth,which made the early achievements of economic reforms vanish under the impact of COVID-19.Therefore,the previous reform path is proved to be unsustainable and should be changed. "The combination of the two mainstreams" is the general direction of Egypt’s economic reform in the future,which means strengthening the support of militarization of the economy to maintain stabilization of the economy,and to strengthen the compatibility between the two mainstreams,so that they can jointly promote the economic growth.The fundamental way of the combination of the two mainstreams is to stimulate the private sector.Considering the potential political risks,the Sisi government will not restrict the military economic development to strengthen the private sector in the short term but may realize its target by indirect means,such as improving the business environment and promoting labor force and enterprise capacity building.