埃及“隐性联盟”战略转型及其动因

“Intangible Alliance” Strategic Transformation and Motivation of Egypt

现有联盟理论研究主要探讨联盟形成的动因,即国家“为什么选择结盟”,忽视了联盟形成过程中结盟对象的选择偏好,即国家“选择与谁结盟”。本文考察当代埃及在不结盟总原则下的“隐性联盟”战略,认为国家战略任务的变化、历史经验的习得和政治领导人的个性特征三个因素共同影响了结盟对象的选择。基于历史分析法,文章梳理了冷战时期以及中东变局以来埃及隐性联盟的四次转型:第一次从与共和制阿拉伯国家结盟转向与苏联结盟(1961~1962年);第二次从与苏联结盟转向与美国结盟(1973~1974年);第三次从与美国结盟转向与政治伊斯兰势力结盟(2012~2013年);第四次从与政治伊斯兰势力结盟转向“多向结盟”(2013~2014年)。研究发现,埃及调整结盟对象受各种内外部、主客观、历史记忆与现实利益、体系和单元等因素的共同影响,其中国家战略任务的变化和历史经验的习得是埃及隐性联盟战略调整的主要影响因素,领导人的个性特征是次要影响因素。

The existing researches on alliance theory mainly discuss the country "why building alliance" in the formation of alliance,ignoring "whom to form alliance with " in the process of the formation of alliance.This paper proposes the concept of "Intangible Alliance" in Egypt,and highlights those three factors may jointly affect the selection of alliance objects,including the changes in national strategic tasks,the acquisition of historical experience and personality characteristics of political leaders.This paper uses historical analysis to review four transformations of the "Intangible Alliance" strategy in Egypt Since the Cold War and the Arab Spring.The first shift was from an alliance with republican Arab states to the Soviet Union(1961-1962);the second shift was from alliance with the Soviet Union to alliance with the US(1973-1974);the third shift was from an alliance with the US to alliance with political Islam(2012-2013),and the fourth shift was from alliances with political Islam to "multi-directional alliance"(2013-2014).This paper found that the Egypt’s adjustment of the alliance target is affected by various factors,including internal and external,subjective and objective,historical and realistic,systematic and unitary and so on.Among the factors,changes in national strategic tasks and the acquisition of historical experience are the main factors in the adjustment of the "intangible alliance" strategy of contemporary Egypt,and the personality characteristics of political leaders is secondary factor.