初始劳动力市场条件与个体劳动力市场表现

Initial Labor Market Conditions and Labor Market Performance

初始劳动力市场条件通过个体人力资本积累和工作搜寻行为对个体的收入水平和工作质量产生长期影响,并最终影响个体终身的职业发展。本文基于1986—2009年中国城镇住户调查(UHS)数据,实证检验了初始劳动力市场条件对个体劳动力市场表现的影响。研究结果表明,不利的初始劳动力市场条件会降低个体未来的收入水平,进入劳动力市场时的失业率每上升1%,个体的年收入平均将下降2%。在考虑不同的劳动力市场因素、不同的样本构成后,上述结论依然成立。在当前全球经济不稳定的背景下,本文的研究结论对政府面对不利劳动力市场条件应采取何种政策举措具有重要启示意义。

Initial labor market conditions have long-run effects on individual income and work quality through human capital accumulation and job search behavior, which ultimately affect career development. Using data from China’s Urban Household Survey(UHS) from 1986 to 2009, this paper empirically analyses the effect of initial labor market conditions on individual labor market performance. The results show that unfavorable initial labor market conditions will reduce the income of individuals. With the unemployment rate increasing by 1%, individuals’ annual income will decrease by 2%. The above conclusions are valid when considering different labor market factors and different sample compositions. Under the background of global economic instability, the findings of this paper are of great implications for the government when considering what policies it should take in the face of unfavorable labor market conditions.