航天项目研制过程中项目经费风险管控研究

Research on risk management and control of project funds in the process of aerospace project development

航天研制项目通常是复杂系统工程,具有研制周期长、参研单位性质多样、不确定因素多、经费预算调整难度大、研制和经费管控的不可预测性高等特点,本文针对国内外航天研制项目经费管理存在的问题和相关研究的缺陷,以航天研制项目过程中经费风险监控与处置问题为对象,研究建立全过程经费风险评估模型与风险评估体系,以及经费风险因素的有效识别、评估方法和管控措施。首先,在分析航天研制项目特点和风险管控内容的基础上,识别和详尽分析了航天研制项目包含的技术设计、研制生产、管理决策、人力资源和研制环境等五项经费风险因素,建立了航天研制项目全过程经费风险评估体系。然后,基于经费管控过程分析法,提出由风险设计、风险识别、风险分析、风险措施以及风险监控等模块组成的风险管控模型,这五个模块既相对独立又内在关联。随后,以确保航天项目成功研制条件下的经费风险控制成本最低为目标,研究提出并详细说明了航天项目研制过程中基于模型的经费风险规避、转移、缓解、利用等管控方法,详尽探讨了系统化管控、标准化管控、防御策划、人力激发和预警系统等具体经费风险管控措施,详细分析了风险因素、风险识别、处置方法和管控措施的对应关系,研究表明:这些措施与风险模型中的风险识别模块关联性最强。最后,结合嫦娥四号中继星——“鹊桥”项目的经费管控案例,介绍了项目特点、主要管控措施和管控成效,验证了本文所提经费风险管控措施的正确性和有效性。本文研究结论认为,风险设计是实现经费风险管控中的核心部分,只有在精准地实现了风险识别的前提下,管控措施才能得以顺利运行。本文研究成果在具体项目中实践得到了两个重要启示:一是航天项目经费管控要置前行动,在实施过程中要前移;二是在体系化的管理中,要重视风险设计的迭代、循环分析。本文研究成果及其在实践中的使用验证,充分表明了本文研究对未来项目特别是航天项目有效管理,具有重要现实意义和工程价值。

Aerospace R&D projects are usually complex system projects, characterized by long development cycles, a diverse range of participating research units, many uncertainties, difficulty in adjusting funding budgets, and high unpredictability of development and funding control etc. The paper, based on the problems of funding management of aerospace development projects at home and abroad and the limitations of related research, takes the monitoring and disposal of funding risks in the process of aerospace project development as the object of the study and explores the establishment of a whole-process funding risk assessment model and risk assessment system, as well as effective methods for identification and assessment of funding risk factors and management and control measures. Firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristics of aerospace development projects and risk management and control, five funding risk factors in the process of development of aerospace projects, i.e. technical design, development and production, management decisions, human resources and development environment, are identified and analyzed in detail, and a whole-process funding risk assessment system is established for aerospace development projects. Then, based on the funding management and control process analysis method, a funding risk management and control model consisting of five modules, including funding risk design, funding risk identification, funding risk analysis, funding risk measure, and funding risk monitoring, is proposed. The five modules are relatively independent and intrinsically related. Secondly, with the goal of ensuring the lowest cost of funding risk control under the conditions of successful development of aerospace projects, the paper proposes and details the model-based funding risk avoidance, transfer, mitigation, and utilization methods and other management and control methods in the process of development of aerospace projects, and discusses in detail the specific funding risk management and control measures such as systematic management and control, standardized management and control, defense planning, human motivation and early warning system, and analyzes in detail the correlation among risk factors, risk identification and disposal methods, and management and control measures. The paper shows that these measures have the strongest correlation with the risk identification module of the risk model. Finally, the project characteristics, main management and control measures and management and control results are introduced based on the case of funding management and control of Chang′e-4 Mission′s Queqiao relay satellite project, which verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the funding risk management and control measures proposed in this paper. The paper concludes that risk design is a key part of good funding risk management and control, and the basis for the correct implementation of the five types of management and control measures is accurate risk identification. The research results of this paper have been applied in specific projects and have led to two important insights: first, the management and control of aerospace project funding should be placed in front and conducted earlier in the implementation process;second, in systematic management, the iterative and circular analysis of risk design should be emphasized. The research results of the paper and the verification of their use in real cases fully demonstrate that the results of the paper are of practical significance and engineering value to the effective management of future projects, especially aerospace projects.