千年视野下百年未有之大变局与中国路径

Interpreting Centennial Changes under the Grand History of Thousands of Years and China's Grand Strategy

当前以东升西降为本质的百年未有之大变局正在国际格局与国际秩序的裂变中逐步展现。但是,以权力转移为基调的百年变局框架不能深刻解释世界范围内千年变局的文明与国家发展规律。只有以千年变局视野下文明中国为路径,才能跳出既有西方国际关系的叙事框架。在当今新时代,中国首次放弃过去数百年间“刺激—反应”模式的被动策略,迈入顺势而为,积极主动引领百年未有之大变局的战略轨道。从战略全局的挑战来看,美国正试图在全球范围内调动各方资源建立排华反华联盟,阻挠中国战略全局的实现,以期延续其21世纪的全球霸权地位。但是在千年历史长河中,东升西降这一百年未有之大变局不可逆转。然而,变局非定局,中国需要从战略全局出发,综合运用实力政治与文明对话这两大战略,积极主动塑造和引领百年未有之大变局,实现中华民族伟大复兴,推动构建人类命运共同体。

The profound change unseen over the past several centuries is the gradual unfolding of“the rise of the East and the fall of the West”. The framework of centuries-old change based on the Western framework of power shift is inadequate in explaining the laws of human civilization and national development that have changed the world across the span of thousands of years. The perspective of China as civilization-state can shed the arrogance and prejudice of the existing Western point of view on international relations. Over the past several hundred years, for the first time, China has shifted from the role of the passive respondent within the“stimulus-response”pattern of the East-West relationship to being a proactive leader in embracing and enforcing this gigantic or monumental change in Chinese history and human history.