乌克兰危机的多维探源

A Multidimensional Exploration of the Ukraine Crisis

俄乌冲突有着复杂的历史经纬和现实因素,是不同国际关系行为体在互动过程中彼此之间的矛盾不断累积直至激化的结果。本文基于国际关系层次分析法,分别从国际体系、地区体系、国家层面和个体层面探究俄乌冲突的根源。研究认为,俄罗斯追求巩固欧亚地区事务主导权与美国追求巩固全球霸权以及乌克兰通过加入西方阵营谋求独立权之间的矛盾是俄乌冲突中的主要矛盾,内外因素推动俄罗斯与西方及乌克兰的矛盾升级为军事冲突。冷战结束以来以美国为首的西方集团对俄罗斯持续推进战略挤压和全面遏制,乌克兰在对外政策多次反复后最终走上亲西方反俄道路,成为西方遏制俄罗斯的桥头堡,是刺激俄罗斯采取军事行动的外在因素。对大国地位的高度期待与残酷的现实境遇促使俄罗斯产生强烈的心理落差、相对剥夺感和屈辱感,北约东扩促使俄罗斯的安全焦虑不断上升,加上俄方在冲突前对于国际形势、作战对象和自身实力作出相对乐观的判断,成为推动俄罗斯作出具有“挫折—反抗”性质决策的内在因素。普京总统在俄罗斯决策系统中居于核心地位,因其大国抱负、对于乌克兰的执念以及铁腕作风成为必不可少的媒介,将俄罗斯的战略诉求和安全压力以军事冲突的形式展现和释放出来。而泽连斯基选择联美抗俄对俄乌矛盾升级为全面军事冲突以及冲突的长期化起到推动作用。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has complex historical and practical factors,which is the result of the accumulation and intensification of contradictions among different actors in international relations.Based on the analytic hierarchy process of international relations,this paper explores the root causes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the international system,regional system,national level and individual level.Russia’s pursuit of dominance in the Eurasian region,the United States’pursuit of consolidating global hegemony,and Ukraine’s pursuit of independence by joining the Western camp are the main contradictions in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Internal and external factors promote Russia to escalate the contradiction into a military conflict.Since the end of the cold war,the Western bloc led by the U.S.has continued to promote strategic squeeze and comprehensive containment against Russia,and Ukraine has finally embarked on a pro-western and anti-Russian Road,becoming the bridgehead for the west to contain Russia,which is an external factor to stimulate Russia to take military action.The high expectation for the status of a great power and the cruel reality have prompted Russia to have a strong psychological gap,a sense of plunder and humiliation.The eastward expansion of NATO has prompted Russia’s security anxiety to rise.In addition,Russia has made relatively optimistic judgments about the international situation,combat targets and its own strength before the conflict,which has become an internal factor to promote Russia to make decisions.Strongman Russian President Putin is at the core of Russia’s decision-making system.He shows and releases Russia’s strategic demands and security pressure in the form of military conflict.Ukrainian President Zelensky chose to unite the United States against Russia,which played a role in promoting the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a comprehensive military conflict and the protraction of the conflict.