外贸依存度、银行主导融资与科技自立自强

Trade openness,bank-based financial system and technological self-reliance

本文将金融发展、外贸依存度和前沿技术距离的三项交乘项置于同一框架展开研究,采用30省市经济金融与创新数据集,通过理论与实证分析,发现银行主导融资模式在初期对于科技创新具有促进效应,能够有效地推动地区实现追赶式创新。其作用机理在于银行主导融资、外贸依存度和前沿技术距离这三者之一,对创新价值的边际影响由其余二者的综合作用决定。在此基础上进行数值测算,并图示相关性和时序变化得出:随着银行信贷GDP占比提高,其边际创新效应在后期下降至零值以下,意味着可考虑调整金融结构;外贸依存度则显现“倒U型”,可见过高或者过低都不利于其发挥对于科技创新的最大促进功能;而前沿技术距离缩短,则伴随着模仿创新的价值或可能性在下降。这些结论丰富了银行主导型金融体系支持科技自立自强的经验认识,对于构建“双循环”新发展格局和突出创新核心地位亦有所启发。

The study shows that the bank-based financing model has a positive effect on technological innovation in the early stage, which can effectively promote catch-up innovation in late-developing regions. As the level of economic development increases, it shows the characteristics of regional differentiation. Meanwhile, one of the three factors of bank-based financing, foreign trade dependence, and distance to cutting-edge technology, the marginal impact on the value of innovation is determined by the combined effect of the other two. Numerical calculations are carried out on this basis, the marginal innovation effect is analyzed in depth from the perspective of the critical value, and the correlation and time-series changes are illustrated. As the proportion of credit-to-GDP increases, its marginal innovation effect drops to zero in the later period. This means we can consider adjusting the financial structure. The degree of dependence on foreign trade has an obvious "inverted U-shape", and it can be seen that too high or too low is not conducive to its maximum promotion of scientific and technological innovation. The shortening of the cutting-edge technology distance is accompanied by a decline in the value or possibility of imitating innovation. This research analyzes financial development, foreign trade dependence, and distance to frontier in the unified framework, enriches the bank-based financial system’s understanding of supporting technological self-reliance, and also inspires the construction of a new development pattern of "dual circulation".