中国人口的初婚推迟趋势与特征

Marriage Delay in China:Trends and Patterns

2020年第七次全国人口普查为分析中国人口的新态势和新特征提供了高质量的数据。依据第七次全国人口普查数据,并结合以往的人口普查和抽样调查数据,考察中国1990~2020年的初婚推迟水平和趋势。研究表明,各类群体的初婚年龄均在推迟,且近年来推迟加速,但终身不婚率依然很低,中国婚姻正在步入晚婚普婚模式。中国有着与西方国家不同的初婚推迟路径,是在经济尚不发达的情况下发生的行为先行的超前推迟。随着现代化进程的不断推进,婚姻的可取性、可行性、可获得性对于婚姻的阻力会进一步增强,中国的初婚还存在继续推迟的空间,但短期内普婚的特征不会改变。初婚决定因素对不同人群的作用不同,认识到初婚推迟背后的异质性非常重要,中国农村男性正面临着越来越大的不婚风险。

The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population.Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys,this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020.Marriage delay,which has been taking place across all population groups,has acceler⁃ated in the recent decade,but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low.Comparing with the Western countries,China has a different path to postpone marriage.Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China.We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to ex⁃plain marriage delay in the Chinese context.Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability,feasibility and availability,and marriage delay will continue,but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run.It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay,males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single.