人口红利重构的挑战:基于国民转移账户的分析

Challenges of the Second Demographic Dividend:Insights from the National Transfer Account

促进人口红利开发,需要对居民收入、消费、政府转移支付在生命周期不同阶段之间和不同世代之间的流动及相互影响有“全景”式的认识和判断。基于国民转移账户的理论架构和国民经济资金流量表,定量分析财富资源在生命周期的配置现状和变化趋势。研究结果显示,中国居民的人均收入和人均消费在60岁以后显著下降,老年期经济在低水平状态下盈余;制度性的二次收入分配调节力度不足,提供的老年保障不充分;每个有效劳动力能够支持的有效消费者的数量下降。在第一次人口红利已逐渐消失的背景下,老年收入和消费约束是中国重构人口红利的重要挑战。加强制度化的老年保障以提升老年期经济盈余是获取第二次人口红利的重要抓手。

Based on the theoretical framework of the national transfer account and the age decom⁃position of national financial flows,this paper quantifies the dynamic changes in the economic lifecycle pattern of individuals and analyzes the conditions and challenges of realizing the second demographic dividend in China.The analysis shows that:the levels of income and consumption declined significantly after the age of 60,but the financial surplus was obtainable at a very low level in old age;the role of the secondary income allocation was limited in adjusting income inequality;the number of effective con⁃sumers that each effective laborer could support declines.While China has the capacity to reconstruct its demographic dividend,challenges remain.Strengthening institutionalized pension to enhance the finan⁃cial surplus in old age is an important policy consideration to capture the second demographic dividend.