技术创新、金融加速器与宏观经济波动

Technological Innovation and Macroeconomic Fluctuation:Does Financial Accelerator Amplify or Dampen?

金融体系被认为是助推经济增长与技术创新的重要因素,但学术界就金融加速器放大还是抑制技术创新对宏观经济波动的影响仍旧莫衷一是。据此,文章以技术创新这一外生冲击为研究主体,构建一个包含金融加速器机制的动态随机一般均衡模型,运用1996-2020年的季度数据客观研判金融加速器放大还是抑制技术创新对宏观经济波动的影响,并进一步揭示其中的影响机理。研究结果表明:金融加速器效应在我国的确存在;金融加速器抑制技术创新对宏观经济波动的影响,可以藉由“债务通货紧缩效应”加以解释;对于技术创新而言,包含金融加速器的模型其福利损失值总是小于不含金融加速器的模型。文章探索了新的外部融资溢价代理变量,将名义债务合同引入模型,合理化债务通货紧缩效应。从多个期限和多个权重系数综合考察不同模型下技术创新的福利效应,为政府制定科技创新政策提供决策依据。

The financial system is considered to be one of the critical factors to promote economic growth and technological innovation. However, it is still controversial whether the financial accelerator can amplify or suppress the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations. Based on this, taking the exogenous impacts of technological innovation as the research subject, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model containing a financial accelerator mechanism, explores whether the financial accelerator can amplify or suppress the impacts of technological innovation on macroeconomic fluctuations with the quarterly data from 1996 to 2020, and further reveals the impact mechanism. The results of the research are as follows: The financial accelerator effect does exist in China;Financial accelerators have suppressed the impacts of technological innovation on macroeconomic fluctuations, which can be explained by the “debt deflation effect”;Welfare analysis shows that for technological innovation, the welfare loss value of the model including the financial accelerator is always smaller than the model without the financial accelerator. This research explores the new proxy of external finance premium, introduces the nominal debt contract into the model, and rationalizes the effect of debt deflation. The welfare effects of technological innovation under different models are comprehensively investigated from multiple periods and multiple weight coefficients, so as to provide decision-making basis for the government to formulate technological innovation policies.