金融发展阶段转换下资本账户开放对银行危机的影响

The Influences of Capital Account Opening on Banking Crisis under the Stage Transformation of Financial Development

利用23个新兴市场经济体1980-2017年的跨国面板数据,基于Logit模型研究了资本账户开放对银行危机的影响,并基于交互效应模型深入探究了随金融市场发展程度变化,资本账户开放对银行危机的异质性效应。研究结果表明,资本账户开放显著提高了新兴市场经济体银行危机发生的概率。并且,随金融市场发展程度变化,资本账户开放对银行危机的影响呈现出明显的异质性影响。当金融发展程度较低时,资本账户开放显著提高了新兴市场经济体发生银行危机的概率,而当金融发展程度较高时,资本账户开放对银行危机的助推作用明显减弱。

Based on the transnational panel data of 23 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2017 and Logit model,this paper studies the influences of capital account opening on banking crises.Then this paper further explores the heterogeneity effects of capital account opening on banking crises based on the interaction effect model with the development of financial market.The results show that capital account opening significantly increases the probability of banking crises in emerging market economies.Moreover,with the development of the financial market,the influences of capital account opening on the banking crises presents obvious heterogeneity characteristics.Specifically,when the degree of financial development is low,capital account opening significantly increases the probability of banking crises in emerging market economies,while when the degree of financial development is high,the role of capital account opening in promoting banking crisis is obviously weakened.