芬兰、瑞典加入北约对北极地缘战略格局的影响

The Impact of Finland and Sweden Joining NATO on the Geostrategic Landscape of the Arctic

北极地区安全格局从冷战后“一超多强”的金字塔型格局,转变为以北极北约国家与俄罗斯为两端、芬兰、瑞典为缓冲带的哑铃型格局。因此,北约对俄罗斯地缘围堵的关键,在于如何将北欧中立国拉入北约阵营,从而构建遏制俄罗斯的“环波罗的海安全圈”,以增大俄核心经济区所面临的地缘安全风险,完成北极的北约化。北极逐渐展现出作为联动欧亚美三大洲安全格局的战略价值,北欧不再是欧洲的边缘地带,而是北极地缘战略格局的核心地带。北欧国家选择追随北约的战略,既是俄美战略对抗的压力使然,亦是西方国家身份的内在推动,更与其领导人及党派对俄欧美战略互动趋势的综合预判相关。瑞典和芬兰加入北约,将进一步动摇北极地缘战略格局的脆弱均势。

The security landscape in the Arctic region has changed from the post-Cold War pyramid-shaped pattern of “one superpower and several great powers” to a dumbbellshaped pattern with Arctic NATO countries and Russia as the ends,and Finland and Sweden as the buffer zone.Therefore,the key to NATO’s containment of Russia lies in how to draw the neutral countries in northern Europe into the NATO camp,so as to build a “security circle around the Baltic Sea” to contain Russia,increase geopolitical security risks faced by Russia’s core economic zone,and complete the “NATOization” of the Arctic.The Arctic has gradually shown its strategic value as it is linking the security landscapes of Europe,Asia and America.Northern Europe is no longer the marginal zone of Europe,but the core zone of the Arctic geostrategic landscape.The choice of the Nordic countries to follow NATO’s strategy is not only caused by the pressure of the strategic confrontation between Russia and the US,but also the internal promotion of their Western identity,and more importantly,it is related to the comprehensive prediction of the trend of the strategic interaction between Europe,Russia and the United States by their leaders and parties.The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO will further shake the fragile balance of power in the geostrategic landscape of the Arctic.