驱推拉阻模型:南沙旅游发展动力的实证研究

Drive-Push-Pull-Block Model:An Empirical Study on the Driving Force of Tourism Development in China’s Nansha Islands

旅游发展动力的推拉理论和推拉阻理论都有混淆内力和外力之嫌,由此提出“驱推拉阻”模型,其中驱力是内力,推力和拉力是外力,阻力既有内生的也有外生的。进而以意义重大的南沙群岛旅游发展为例,结合“驱推拉阻”模型、已有文献和南沙群岛的特殊性,运用德尔菲法构建由4个准则层动力、11个因素层动力和38个指标层动力构成的南沙旅游发展动力指标体系,并系统阐释各层级动力及其对南沙旅游发展的作用机理,再结合层次分析法和因子分析法确定动力指标体系的复合权重,最后运用线性加权法测算南沙旅游发展动力的强度。研究表明,南沙旅游发展的动力强度有待提升,维权是根本动力,政府推力是最重要的外部作用力,外部异议是最大阻力,从主要矛盾看南沙旅游发展的动力模型为维权驱动型,从矛盾的主要方面看则为维护岛礁主权驱动型。进而提出增强南沙旅游发展动力的“两高一低”建议。

The push-pull theory and push-pull-block theory are accused of confusing endogenous and exogenous driving force of tourism development.Thus,the study is aimed to construct a drive-push-pull-block model that distinguish endogenous(drive)and exogenous(push and pull)driving force,in which block includes both endogenous and exogenous components.Take tourism development of China’s Nansha Islands,the empirical study,based on particularity of China’s Nansha Islands,the drive-push-pull-block model,and existing literature,applies Delphi method to build a tourism development driving force index system of China’s Nansha Islands,which consists of four criterion-level,11 factor-level and 38 indicator-level driving force.The driving force index system and its mechanism are systematically explained.Composite-weights of the driving force index system are measured by analytic hierarchy process and factor analysis,and the strength of China’s Nansha Islands’tourism development driving force is finally determined by using linear weighted method.The results indicate that the strength of tourism development driving force of China’s Nansha Islands needs to be increased;rights safeguarding is the fundamental momentum,government promotion is considered as the most important external force,and outside opposition is the greatest resistance.From the perspective of main contradiction,the tourism development driving force model of China’s Nansha Islands is sovereignty-driven;however,looking from the main aspects of the contradiction it is to maintain sovereignty of China’s Nansha islands and reefs.And finally,suggestions are put forward to increase the driving force of China’s Nansha tourism development.